Modi bond, frosty Trudeau ties: Trump could doom Khalistan movement

As speculation grows around Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, one area that could see a significant shift is the US policy towards the Khalistan separatist movement which has resurged in North America. Much of this movement’s revival, including the violent attacks on Indian consulates and desecration of temples in the US and Canada, took place under the Biden administration which had a relatively softer stance on the issue. Should Trump return to power, the Khalistan movement may find itself in troubled waters as Trump’s ‘America First’ doctrine, his close ties with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and his fraught relationship with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could lead to a more aggressive crackdown on violent separatism in North America.
Trump’s ‘America First’ Focus on National Security
At the heart of Trump’s potential approach to the Khalistan issue is his staunch ‘America First’ policy, which prioritises national security and sovereignty above all. Under this framework, movements that pose a threat to public safety or promote violence are likely to be dealt with swiftly. Trump has consistently positioned himself as a law-and-order president, unafraid to take a hard stance on domestic groups that disrupt peace or threaten US interests. Khalistan elements, with their violent history and attacks on Indian consulates, would likely draw his attention as a serious security threat. Moreover, Trump’s focus on curbing foreign influences that undermine US law and order could lead to a more stringent approach toward separatist activities that spill over from India’s internal conflicts into North American soil.
Given the violent history of the Khalistan movement and the recent attacks on Indian diplomatic missions in the US, a Trump administration might adopt a more hands-on approach to prevent these elements from inciting ethnic violence. As the movement continues to grow in the US, with attacks targeting Indian Americans and their institutions, the potential for broader ethnic unrest looms large. Trump’s no-nonsense approach to national security could lead to harsher measures against Khalistan activists, reducing their ability to operate freely on American soil.
Trump’s Close Relationship with Modi: A Game-Changer
One of the key reasons why the Khalistan movement could face trouble under Trump is his personal rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two leaders developed a strong bond during Trump’s first term, a relationship that translated into an enhanced US-India cooperation on defence, trade, and counterterrorism. Modi’s popularity among Indian Americans, who are increasingly influential in US politics, only strengthened this bond. Modi himself has been vocal in condemning the Khalistan movement, which he sees as a threat to Indian unity and sovereignty. With Modi’s strong stance against Khalistan separatism, Trump is likely to find common ground in addressing the issue.
Under Trump’s presidency from 2016 to 2020, the US-India relationship reached new heights, particularly in the areas of defence and strategic cooperation. The two countries signed several landmark defense agreements, including the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), which allowed for closer military coordination. Trump’s administration also supported India in key international forums, which helped to bolster India’s position as a global power. This strengthened partnership between Washington and New Delhi could serve as a foundation for a joint effort to combat Khalistan extremism in North America.
If Trump returns to office, India may find it easier to work with the US in cracking down on Khalistan violence. Modi’s government has been increasingly concerned about the rise of Khalistan activism in the US and Canada. With Trump’s inclination to support Modi, his administration could take a tougher stance on any element that disrupts US-India relations.
Trump’s Strained Relationship with Trudeau: Another Factor
Adding another layer to this dynamic is Trump’s well-documented disdain for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. During his presidency, Trump often clashed with Trudeau over trade policies, immigration, and international diplomacy. This frosty relationship could have unintended consequences for Khalistan activists, who have found significant support and sanctuary in Canada, particularly in regions like British Columbia and Ontario where the movement has a strong base.
Canada’s lenient approach toward Khalistan activism, particularly under Trudeau, has been a bone of contention between New Delhi and Ottawa. India has repeatedly expressed frustration with Canada’s tolerance of separatist activities that target its sovereignty. Should Trump return to power, his personal dislike for Trudeau could drive him to support India’s concerns more forcefully. A Trump administration may be more willing to crack down on cross-border Khalistan activism, pressuring Canada to do the same or risk damaging its relations with the US. In this context, Trudeau’s permissiveness toward Khalistan activism could become a liability, as the US strengthens its partnership with India at Canada’s expense.
The Geopolitical Stakes for the US
At a time when US-India relations are more crucial than ever, especially in countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, turning a blind eye to the Khalistan issue could complicate the broader geopolitical strategy. India has emerged as a vital partner for the US, particularly in multilateral initiatives like the QUAD, aimed at maintaining regional stability. Any disruption in US-India relations caused by the Khalistan movement could weaken this partnership, undermining US strategic interests in Asia.
Trump’s return to power could strengthen the US-India alliance, ensuring that both nations remain aligned in combating not just Khalistan extremism, but also broader challenges like terrorism and security in the Indo-Pacific. Given India’s vocal opposition to Khalistan separatism, a Trump administration might be far more willing to address New Delhi’s concerns than the current administration, which has been more reticent in its response.
A Tough Road Ahead for the Khalistan Movement
A Trump presidency could prove disastrous for the Khalistan movement in North America. With Trump’s ‘America First’ focus on national security, his close ties with Modi, and his distaste for Trudeau, the separatist cause may face unprecedented scrutiny and action. The movement, which has already shown a propensity for violence, could find itself under greater pressure as the US strengthens its resolve to maintain law and order and protect its geopolitical interests.
For the Khalistan movement, which has thrived in the cracks of North America’s political landscape, a Trump administration would likely close those cracks, making it far more difficult to continue their activities. And for India, a Trump presidency could be the opportunity it needs to finally crack down on the violent extremism that has long been a thorn in its side.